* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 69 66 61 54 51 45 38 34 31 27 22 V (KT) LAND 75 72 69 66 61 54 51 45 38 34 31 27 22 V (KT) LGEM 75 71 67 62 57 48 41 37 34 31 28 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 6 5 1 3 7 10 10 7 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 1 -4 -1 -3 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 285 283 345 38 59 301 252 204 224 228 235 208 229 SST (C) 27.6 26.4 25.0 24.2 23.7 22.3 22.3 21.3 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 128 114 106 100 85 85 74 74 73 73 72 70 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 72 70 68 67 64 60 55 51 46 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 29 28 27 25 23 21 19 18 18 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 35 39 34 36 44 40 39 28 32 24 15 2 -7 200 MB DIV 38 55 37 20 3 2 -4 0 -14 -10 -5 -9 -6 700-850 TADV 15 10 -3 -6 -2 -5 -5 -5 -1 0 1 3 0 LAND (KM) 335 327 331 397 417 481 649 790 909 966 998 1003 969 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.3 23.0 23.8 24.5 25.8 26.5 27.0 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.5 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.9 114.9 116.1 117.2 119.3 121.4 123.3 124.8 125.8 126.4 126.8 127.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 12 11 9 8 5 4 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -13. -18. -23. -27. -30. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -9. -15. -16. -17. -20. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -14. -21. -24. -30. -37. -41. -44. -48. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.5 112.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.68 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.09 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX