* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 39 39 40 41 40 38 37 35 33 30 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 39 39 40 41 40 38 37 35 33 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 39 38 38 37 36 34 32 30 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 6 4 3 4 8 4 5 5 5 1 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 -5 -6 -2 0 -2 0 4 3 SHEAR DIR 353 6 16 29 50 69 57 51 316 215 264 328 27 SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.8 26.7 26.0 25.8 24.9 23.8 23.4 23.5 23.3 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 123 125 128 130 128 121 119 110 98 94 95 92 94 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 61 63 62 61 57 58 56 55 53 46 40 36 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 14 16 17 24 33 24 49 92 89 78 72 34 200 MB DIV -19 -7 -12 -11 5 26 17 5 -11 -30 -22 -15 -27 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -6 -5 -3 -2 -2 0 -3 -1 -5 -7 -1 LAND (KM) 2100 2098 2097 2070 2045 1979 1884 1809 1768 1772 1838 1855 1894 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.3 17.1 18.1 19.1 20.2 21.1 21.6 21.9 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 129.4 129.8 130.2 130.4 130.5 130.4 130.1 130.0 130.3 130.9 131.9 132.6 133.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.5 129.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.46 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.76 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.04 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.13 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.62 -1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.09 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 16.5% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 4.8% 2.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 7.1% 4.2% 0.3% 0.1% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 8.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 7.0% 18.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX