* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 67 64 59 51 44 38 30 25 23 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 70 69 67 64 59 51 44 38 30 25 23 19 DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 68 64 60 55 45 37 31 28 26 24 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 4 5 2 5 10 11 14 5 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 -4 -4 -2 -5 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 246 287 14 67 77 274 282 267 273 263 252 264 231 SST (C) 25.8 24.7 23.8 23.4 23.2 22.2 21.3 21.2 21.3 21.2 21.1 20.9 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 123 111 101 97 95 84 74 72 71 70 69 67 60 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 71 73 71 69 68 65 62 58 53 49 44 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 25 25 23 22 19 17 15 14 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 35 31 29 38 41 23 13 13 14 -4 1 -15 -4 200 MB DIV 44 38 23 -1 1 -5 10 -5 0 -15 -4 -15 2 700-850 TADV 11 0 -1 0 -2 -6 -4 -2 -1 0 0 2 -11 LAND (KM) 279 303 371 383 408 531 689 802 863 880 872 829 753 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.5 24.2 24.9 25.5 26.6 27.3 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.5 29.0 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.9 116.0 117.1 118.2 120.2 122.3 123.8 124.9 125.6 126.1 126.1 125.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 10 8 6 4 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 14 CX,CY: -7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -15. -18. -22. -26. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -16. -19. -19. -22. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -11. -19. -26. -32. -40. -45. -47. -51. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 22.7 113.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX