* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 45 45 46 43 42 40 37 34 30 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 45 45 46 43 42 40 37 34 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 41 41 41 40 39 37 34 31 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 6 5 5 6 8 6 9 2 10 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 -5 -4 0 1 0 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 352 22 23 21 52 45 50 7 21 23 54 28 56 SST (C) 26.3 26.6 26.8 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.2 24.2 23.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 127 129 129 124 119 113 102 93 90 91 93 88 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 59 58 55 56 57 54 46 42 38 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 13 13 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 16 23 26 25 16 22 59 80 60 58 38 12 200 MB DIV 10 9 7 18 18 7 21 7 -5 -35 -27 -20 -14 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -5 -6 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 2097 2081 2066 2037 2008 1921 1829 1765 1739 1744 1761 1799 1820 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.8 18.8 19.8 20.7 21.3 21.5 21.9 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 129.9 130.1 130.3 130.4 130.5 130.3 130.0 130.0 130.3 130.7 131.0 131.7 132.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 6 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 3. 3. 0. -3. -6. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.0 129.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.44 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.76 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.03 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 234.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.61 -2.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.58 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.10 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 17.9% 17.2% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 8.8% 5.0% 2.0% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 8.9% 7.4% 4.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 15.0% 44.0% 23.0% 16.0% 8.0% 11.0% 18.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX