* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 57 53 47 39 34 30 24 19 18 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 65 61 57 53 47 39 34 30 24 19 18 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 61 56 52 47 39 33 29 27 25 23 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 5 6 7 3 5 8 11 13 8 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -4 -5 -7 -6 -5 -3 -1 0 1 4 SHEAR DIR 241 340 60 106 131 185 219 266 269 277 232 261 268 SST (C) 24.8 23.7 23.8 23.1 22.1 21.8 21.1 21.3 21.3 21.2 21.1 20.8 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 112 100 101 94 83 79 71 72 71 69 68 66 60 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 73 72 71 69 67 65 63 57 56 48 44 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 22 22 21 19 18 16 13 13 12 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 29 35 39 38 26 13 11 16 4 -4 -17 -6 0 200 MB DIV 33 17 10 5 -1 -7 -5 -1 -15 1 -7 -1 -2 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 -6 -5 -3 -4 1 3 4 0 0 -10 LAND (KM) 347 412 424 446 502 658 767 855 888 882 855 811 759 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 24.0 24.7 25.4 26.1 27.1 27.5 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.5 29.0 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 115.3 116.4 117.5 118.6 119.7 121.7 123.3 124.5 125.4 125.8 125.8 125.8 125.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 9 7 5 3 2 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. -25. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -17. -18. -19. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -18. -26. -31. -35. -41. -46. -47. -49. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 23.3 115.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.89 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.65 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX