* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 44 45 45 44 40 37 34 31 26 20 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 44 45 45 44 40 37 34 31 26 20 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 41 41 41 38 35 32 29 25 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 7 8 7 9 5 8 7 11 8 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -6 -5 -5 -1 -1 1 0 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 16 21 19 52 74 20 37 13 35 355 16 33 84 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.6 26.2 26.0 25.5 24.6 23.3 22.8 22.4 22.3 22.6 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 127 123 121 117 107 93 87 83 82 86 87 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 60 61 60 58 58 57 59 56 53 48 42 39 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 12 12 12 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 21 28 31 27 22 13 47 67 61 43 39 8 -23 200 MB DIV 31 25 20 26 21 3 14 -14 -25 -19 -22 -24 -11 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -4 -3 -3 0 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2074 2043 2013 1977 1941 1825 1719 1664 1628 1620 1616 1651 1729 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.4 18.6 19.7 20.6 21.4 22.1 22.8 23.0 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 130.1 130.2 130.2 130.2 130.2 129.8 129.4 129.4 129.5 129.8 130.1 130.9 132.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 5 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -5. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. -3. -6. -9. -14. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.5 130.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.43 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.74 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.03 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.59 -2.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.51 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 20.1% 18.4% 11.9% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 10.7% 7.3% 2.8% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 10.3% 8.6% 4.9% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 17.0% 29.0% 14.0% 9.0% 4.0% 7.0% 6.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX