* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 51 47 43 36 32 29 23 21 19 17 16 V (KT) LAND 60 56 51 47 43 36 32 29 23 21 19 17 16 V (KT) LGEM 60 55 51 46 41 34 30 28 26 23 21 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 0 4 6 7 3 2 5 10 16 10 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -4 -4 -5 -5 -3 -2 1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 62 85 118 141 180 232 264 273 272 257 268 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 24.2 23.4 22.7 22.3 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.4 21.2 20.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 105 97 89 85 69 72 73 72 70 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 71 69 69 69 68 66 63 56 51 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 21 20 18 17 15 12 12 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 44 49 33 23 14 3 10 -13 1 -3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 -3 -1 9 -2 0 6 6 1 5 -1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 -4 -7 -2 -2 -1 0 4 1 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 411 438 479 532 601 719 829 869 870 846 797 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.8 25.4 26.0 26.5 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.4 28.8 29.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.9 119.0 120.0 120.9 122.7 124.1 125.2 125.9 126.1 126.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 8 6 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -17. -24. -28. -31. -37. -39. -41. -43. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.2 116.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.96 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/09/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX