* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 60 59 56 52 45 39 34 31 26 22 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 60 59 56 52 45 39 34 31 26 22 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 61 60 56 50 43 38 33 28 24 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 8 8 8 7 6 8 12 11 8 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -6 -6 -6 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 10 34 59 63 44 28 358 18 353 39 19 85 133 SST (C) 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.3 23.9 23.5 23.3 22.5 22.6 22.3 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 121 121 120 114 99 94 92 84 86 83 85 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 59 59 61 61 60 54 50 42 37 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 38 31 20 6 24 54 66 43 39 26 0 -24 200 MB DIV 20 10 23 22 7 13 8 -14 -26 -14 -13 -1 -32 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -3 -1 1 -1 0 2 -1 -1 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 2051 2006 1961 1901 1842 1726 1644 1597 1590 1592 1606 1641 1732 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.5 17.0 17.6 18.1 19.2 20.2 21.0 21.6 22.3 23.1 23.4 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 130.2 130.2 130.1 129.8 129.6 129.1 128.9 128.9 129.2 129.6 130.3 131.3 132.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -10. -16. -21. -24. -29. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.9 130.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.27 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.72 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 5.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.48 -2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.19 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.1% 25.7% 23.0% 15.4% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.8% 7.1% 7.2% 2.3% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.4% 11.0% 10.1% 5.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 16.0% 44.0% 28.0% 25.0% 15.0% 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/09/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX