* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 47 42 38 33 29 26 22 22 18 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 51 47 42 38 33 29 26 22 22 18 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 51 46 42 38 31 28 26 24 22 20 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 7 6 5 3 4 6 10 12 9 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -5 -6 -5 -5 -3 0 2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 120 128 136 161 191 261 273 276 282 254 280 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 23.7 22.8 22.3 21.6 21.0 21.3 21.4 21.3 21.1 20.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 100 90 85 77 70 72 72 71 69 61 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 70 68 66 66 63 62 55 55 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 22 20 19 18 16 14 13 13 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 49 42 20 13 13 12 8 -1 -2 6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 6 3 1 0 0 4 -10 4 -3 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 -3 -5 -1 -2 -5 0 0 2 -1 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 473 506 566 630 702 794 864 859 853 813 752 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.1 25.7 26.2 26.7 27.3 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.9 29.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.0 119.1 120.2 121.1 122.0 123.5 124.5 125.2 125.6 125.7 125.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 9 9 6 4 3 2 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -12. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -17. -22. -26. -29. -32. -33. -37. -39. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.5 118.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/09/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX