* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 59 58 58 54 49 43 37 33 28 24 19 V (KT) LAND 55 58 59 58 58 54 49 43 37 33 28 24 19 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 60 59 54 47 40 34 28 23 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 7 8 9 6 11 9 17 15 14 1 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -5 -2 1 -2 0 0 -1 0 9 1 SHEAR DIR 16 58 66 48 27 354 6 18 352 353 349 296 180 SST (C) 26.2 25.9 25.9 25.7 25.5 24.1 23.8 23.8 23.5 23.2 22.5 22.7 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 121 119 116 102 98 97 95 92 85 86 88 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 61 60 61 61 60 61 63 61 55 49 44 37 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 14 12 12 13 13 13 12 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 42 34 23 8 13 72 62 47 23 4 -7 -8 -2 200 MB DIV 1 15 25 10 6 21 -21 -41 -18 -10 -9 -16 -10 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 1 4 2 2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1991 1931 1871 1812 1754 1640 1546 1511 1508 1514 1429 1391 1382 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.4 18.9 20.0 21.1 21.9 22.5 23.4 24.6 25.4 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 130.1 129.9 129.7 129.5 129.2 128.7 128.4 128.5 128.8 129.3 129.6 130.1 130.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -5. -7. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 3. 3. -1. -6. -12. -18. -22. -27. -31. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.6 130.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.24 2.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.69 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 335.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.48 -2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.33 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.0% 23.9% 21.9% 14.8% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 2.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.1% 8.8% 7.9% 5.1% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 15.0% 10.0% 7.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/09/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX