* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 56 55 50 44 38 32 24 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 56 55 50 44 38 32 24 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 53 51 44 37 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 12 12 11 15 15 16 16 13 2 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 0 3 5 0 1 0 4 5 11 4 SHEAR DIR 39 55 49 33 41 4 33 360 343 344 326 309 176 SST (C) 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.4 24.7 23.6 23.8 23.6 23.2 22.6 22.8 22.9 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 120 116 108 96 98 96 92 86 88 89 76 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 61 61 60 61 62 64 60 56 51 44 38 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 17 16 16 15 15 14 11 10 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 31 31 16 13 23 51 45 30 16 -12 -18 -24 -17 200 MB DIV 22 22 15 12 30 16 -14 -28 -1 0 6 -16 7 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -1 1 2 2 7 3 3 1 0 -6 LAND (KM) 1946 1879 1812 1742 1674 1582 1522 1499 1505 1453 1389 1342 1311 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.7 18.3 19.0 19.6 20.8 21.7 22.5 23.4 24.4 25.5 26.5 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 130.0 129.7 129.4 129.1 128.8 128.6 128.5 128.7 129.2 129.7 130.2 130.7 131.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 6 4 5 5 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 0. -5. -11. -17. -23. -31. -36. -41. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.1 130.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.22 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 324.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 21.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 7.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 17.0% 12.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX