* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 34 30 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 34 30 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 40 36 32 28 23 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 2 1 3 8 7 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -4 -3 -5 -2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 107 91 74 303 330 296 289 280 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.1 22.4 22.1 21.4 20.8 21.1 20.9 20.4 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 86 82 75 68 70 68 62 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 64 64 63 63 61 61 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 18 18 17 15 12 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -8 -15 -10 0 10 9 19 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -7 -13 -3 -7 0 -8 -11 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -4 -4 -1 0 -2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 509 565 634 696 737 802 767 691 625 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.2 26.7 27.1 27.4 27.9 28.7 29.5 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.5 120.4 121.3 122.1 122.9 123.9 124.5 124.5 124.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -8. -9. -9. -9. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -18. -19. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -15. -20. -27. -32. -35. -38. -39. -41. -43. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 25.6 119.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.92 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX