* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 57 54 49 40 32 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 60 57 54 49 40 32 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 60 57 53 48 39 31 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 8 7 13 9 13 13 19 14 1 12 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 6 3 6 2 0 2 7 9 5 3 SHEAR DIR 33 24 20 352 347 347 341 346 330 323 218 164 165 SST (C) 24.7 24.7 24.1 23.5 22.9 22.5 22.3 22.5 22.2 22.0 22.0 22.2 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 109 108 102 95 88 84 82 85 82 79 79 81 80 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 60 62 60 62 63 59 55 49 46 43 41 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 14 15 15 15 14 14 12 10 8 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 16 6 17 30 28 40 23 16 -5 -17 -31 -34 -36 200 MB DIV 11 14 30 29 -8 -10 -27 -7 -4 1 -22 7 16 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -1 1 1 3 3 4 5 5 3 4 LAND (KM) 1825 1765 1707 1675 1644 1614 1601 1600 1569 1555 1550 1534 1501 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.3 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.5 22.3 23.1 24.0 24.8 25.4 26.1 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 129.8 129.6 129.4 129.4 129.3 129.4 129.7 130.2 131.0 131.8 132.4 132.9 133.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -13. -15. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -6. -11. -20. -28. -34. -41. -46. -50. -56. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.6 129.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.08 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.96 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 369.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.53 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 6.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX