* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 46 41 38 29 25 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 51 46 41 38 29 25 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 51 47 43 39 32 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 11 13 7 11 11 14 1 10 11 12 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 2 1 5 3 3 2 15 8 6 7 9 SHEAR DIR 13 340 336 336 335 324 335 322 192 213 194 218 209 SST (C) 23.4 22.7 22.3 22.3 22.4 22.9 22.5 22.5 23.1 22.9 22.8 22.7 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 95 87 82 82 83 88 84 85 91 89 88 87 97 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 59 61 55 54 51 48 45 44 41 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 14 15 16 13 13 11 9 7 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 8 23 24 24 31 6 8 -9 -7 -20 -20 -18 -21 200 MB DIV 17 17 -12 -27 -11 -26 -7 -17 -7 -33 -10 -7 35 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 1 0 3 1 6 5 2 1 1 4 LAND (KM) 1741 1721 1703 1708 1714 1755 1764 1801 1860 1916 1942 1817 1695 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.7 21.2 21.5 21.7 22.0 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.6 23.9 24.1 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 130.0 130.1 130.2 130.4 130.6 131.2 132.0 133.1 134.3 135.5 136.6 137.9 139.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 3 3 4 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -17. -26. -30. -35. -38. -41. -44. -49. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.2 130.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 340.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX