* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 34 30 26 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 34 30 26 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 33 29 26 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 10 7 13 11 7 8 19 25 32 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 3 4 2 0 5 12 5 6 6 10 SHEAR DIR 336 331 336 350 324 330 325 326 224 222 235 245 222 SST (C) 22.5 22.3 22.5 22.8 22.9 22.5 22.5 23.1 23.0 23.0 23.3 23.7 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 85 82 84 87 88 84 85 91 91 91 94 98 95 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -54.0 -54.4 -54.9 -55.4 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 59 57 53 51 48 45 47 44 46 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 14 13 11 10 8 6 5 4 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 19 18 22 30 26 8 -5 -16 -17 -27 -28 -26 -33 200 MB DIV 15 -2 -22 -13 -33 -12 -23 -7 -9 -5 -5 37 16 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 4 2 2 2 5 7 LAND (KM) 1728 1725 1723 1741 1757 1779 1818 1861 1939 1887 1735 1620 1541 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.3 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.4 22.7 23.1 23.4 23.7 24.0 24.4 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 130.3 130.5 130.7 131.0 131.3 132.1 133.1 134.2 135.6 137.1 138.7 140.0 141.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -10. -9. -7. -5. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -14. -17. -22. -25. -28. -29. -32. -36. -40. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.9 130.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.58 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX