* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN EP162018 08/28/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 43 50 59 67 73 78 79 82 82 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 43 50 59 67 73 78 79 82 82 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 42 48 53 57 61 64 67 71 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 2 3 3 4 4 8 8 11 17 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -2 0 0 -3 -3 0 -1 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 68 59 51 59 84 164 95 85 63 64 57 62 49 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 159 159 156 153 150 148 145 143 142 139 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 5 4 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 66 65 67 64 60 59 56 54 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 12 13 14 16 19 21 22 25 26 28 31 850 MB ENV VOR -1 11 12 11 18 24 34 40 58 72 81 109 126 200 MB DIV 15 26 33 46 45 57 46 2 -23 -4 2 4 -13 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -4 -3 1 -1 0 2 -2 -3 -3 -8 LAND (KM) 660 659 673 704 745 843 945 1100 1319 1520 1704 1873 2052 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.8 18.9 18.7 18.2 17.7 17.2 17.0 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 112.1 113.0 113.8 114.7 115.5 117.3 118.9 120.7 122.9 125.0 127.0 129.0 131.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 10 11 10 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 26 22 17 14 13 12 13 27 8 7 8 22 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 9. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 18. 20. 22. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 13. 20. 29. 37. 43. 48. 49. 52. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.3 112.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 SIXTEEN 08/28/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.88 7.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.16 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.75 -4.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.82 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 26.1% 25.4% 17.8% 11.7% 21.4% 29.7% 23.0% Logistic: 7.9% 31.1% 24.5% 12.3% 6.5% 32.0% 32.0% 12.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 7.1% 19.5% 16.7% 10.0% 6.1% 17.8% 20.6% 12.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 47.0% 30.0% 16.0% 5.0% 51.0% 53.0% 75.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 SIXTEEN 08/28/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX