* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 08/29/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 59 68 75 89 95 96 90 88 82 80 70 V (KT) LAND 45 52 59 68 75 89 95 96 90 88 82 80 70 V (KT) LGEM 45 53 60 67 74 85 92 96 98 96 92 88 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 3 3 7 6 12 10 14 17 13 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 0 -2 -2 -6 -2 0 -2 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 66 28 34 72 123 92 77 43 54 62 67 51 64 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 160 158 156 153 150 148 145 144 146 146 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 65 67 66 64 63 60 59 57 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 18 19 21 21 25 26 28 29 31 29 850 MB ENV VOR 12 17 16 19 21 26 35 44 67 73 89 109 122 200 MB DIV 20 39 58 55 56 38 14 19 -2 3 -15 -18 -19 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -5 -8 -3 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -4 -8 -7 LAND (KM) 707 707 715 787 854 966 1067 1263 1513 1710 1867 2090 2259 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.3 17.9 17.2 16.6 16.1 15.8 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.1 114.7 115.7 116.7 118.5 119.9 122.0 124.4 126.4 128.0 130.6 133.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 10 9 8 9 11 11 9 10 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 26 18 15 15 14 14 24 13 10 12 18 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 45.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 7. 11. 15. 20. 20. 23. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 5. 8. 16. 20. 16. 8. 1. -4. -8. -11. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 23. 30. 44. 50. 51. 45. 43. 37. 35. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.4 113.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 08/29/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 11.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 11.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.85 14.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.15 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 6.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 9.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 7.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.65 -6.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 1.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 5.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 57% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 56% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.3% 64.9% 59.0% 49.7% 35.5% 56.9% 56.4% 15.5% Logistic: 59.1% 74.0% 69.8% 60.6% 47.4% 69.5% 45.9% 15.6% Bayesian: 8.4% 33.1% 12.0% 5.6% 4.5% 4.0% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 32.3% 57.3% 46.9% 38.6% 29.1% 43.5% 34.4% 10.4% DTOPS: 46.0% 98.0% 95.0% 71.0% 76.0% 96.0% 78.0% 85.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 08/29/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX