* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 08/29/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 58 66 73 79 90 93 94 90 90 87 81 75 V (KT) LAND 50 58 66 73 79 90 93 94 90 90 87 81 75 V (KT) LGEM 50 60 69 77 83 92 95 96 96 94 90 86 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 8 7 11 10 14 17 16 15 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -2 -2 0 -3 0 0 0 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 47 39 68 114 93 57 63 42 49 55 75 83 111 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 160 158 157 154 151 149 147 144 145 145 143 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 67 64 66 63 64 61 60 59 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 21 22 22 25 24 27 28 30 32 31 30 850 MB ENV VOR 14 16 17 22 20 29 40 55 72 88 98 106 121 200 MB DIV 42 68 73 74 33 47 16 1 -3 19 -23 -17 -5 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -7 -5 -3 -3 -2 -1 -3 -4 -7 -7 -4 LAND (KM) 752 801 859 910 946 1062 1221 1403 1611 1803 1982 2137 2279 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.9 18.0 17.9 17.6 17.2 16.5 16.0 15.5 15.5 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 114.2 115.2 116.1 117.0 117.8 119.4 121.2 123.1 125.0 127.0 128.9 130.9 133.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 17 15 14 14 18 21 9 16 18 14 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 33.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 12. 15. 19. 21. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 5. 11. 14. 11. 5. 1. -2. -5. -7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 23. 29. 40. 43. 44. 40. 40. 37. 31. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.4 114.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 08/29/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 10.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 12.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.74 11.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 6.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.80 8.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.60 -5.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 1.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 4.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 53% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.6% 58.0% 56.4% 49.8% 30.4% 52.5% 41.2% 11.2% Logistic: 37.6% 47.5% 45.2% 34.6% 25.8% 39.3% 36.5% 9.7% Bayesian: 15.9% 21.7% 10.6% 6.1% 3.7% 1.8% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 27.7% 42.4% 37.4% 30.2% 20.0% 31.2% 26.1% 7.0% DTOPS: 94.0% 99.0% 98.0% 87.0% 92.0% 95.0% 77.0% 62.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 08/29/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX