* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 08/29/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 74 79 87 93 92 88 83 84 79 74 V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 74 79 87 93 92 88 83 84 79 74 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 67 72 76 82 88 91 90 89 89 85 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 12 12 15 18 15 17 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -2 -2 -1 -5 -2 -1 0 2 1 6 2 SHEAR DIR 56 67 109 98 60 65 46 49 52 61 82 82 81 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.0 28.1 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 159 158 157 153 151 149 147 144 146 142 140 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -52.1 -51.5 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 64 67 65 65 64 63 62 63 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 21 20 22 22 23 26 26 27 27 31 30 30 850 MB ENV VOR 17 14 16 11 23 38 48 67 82 95 94 96 111 200 MB DIV 66 82 84 36 20 27 27 -3 32 30 0 5 9 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 -2 -6 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 793 840 891 928 965 1091 1244 1432 1635 1810 1958 2095 2215 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.0 17.9 17.5 16.9 16.4 16.0 15.9 16.5 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 115.1 115.9 116.6 117.3 118.1 119.8 121.4 123.2 125.2 127.1 129.0 131.3 133.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 9 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 12 12 13 22 19 12 17 18 18 9 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 31.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 18. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 13. 10. 5. 1. -2. -5. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 24. 32. 38. 37. 33. 28. 29. 24. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.6 115.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 08/29/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 8.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 8.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.58 -4.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.2% 55.0% 42.9% 35.4% 17.7% 32.2% 21.9% 9.3% Logistic: 23.7% 34.2% 27.6% 18.6% 13.6% 19.6% 18.6% 2.5% Bayesian: 6.9% 14.2% 4.2% 2.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 17.9% 34.5% 24.9% 18.7% 10.8% 17.5% 13.6% 3.9% DTOPS: 78.0% 97.0% 93.0% 73.0% 77.0% 77.0% 73.0% 44.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 08/29/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX