* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 08/29/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 77 82 87 90 91 87 83 84 80 75 68 V (KT) LAND 65 72 77 82 87 90 91 87 83 84 80 75 68 V (KT) LGEM 65 72 78 83 86 89 90 89 88 86 82 76 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 9 11 13 13 14 21 19 18 12 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 -2 -2 -3 0 0 4 0 5 8 7 SHEAR DIR 66 105 99 75 67 72 45 65 57 79 103 104 121 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 158 157 155 152 150 149 147 145 144 140 139 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 68 65 67 66 62 63 61 63 60 61 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 23 24 24 26 26 27 30 30 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR 21 23 23 33 43 50 66 81 88 97 92 104 112 200 MB DIV 71 81 58 34 36 3 32 20 20 12 -9 -12 2 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -3 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -6 -4 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 837 887 925 974 1027 1167 1329 1510 1709 1878 2020 2170 2083 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.6 17.1 16.5 15.8 15.7 16.2 17.0 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 115.7 116.5 117.3 118.1 118.9 120.5 122.1 123.8 125.6 127.7 130.1 132.6 135.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 12 13 14 26 13 14 23 20 14 5 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 19.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 9. 14. 14. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 26. 22. 18. 19. 15. 10. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.6 115.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 08/29/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.48 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.53 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 6.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.89 7.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 303.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.52 -3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 32.6% 47.1% 37.2% 31.2% 18.4% 21.8% 18.3% 0.0% Logistic: 37.6% 41.8% 32.2% 26.1% 26.5% 19.1% 9.4% 1.0% Bayesian: 10.0% 12.0% 3.7% 2.3% 1.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 26.8% 33.6% 24.4% 19.9% 15.5% 13.9% 9.3% 0.3% DTOPS: 87.0% 93.0% 85.0% 66.0% 66.0% 86.0% 34.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 08/29/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX