* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 08/30/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 82 86 88 90 85 86 85 82 80 75 70 V (KT) LAND 70 76 82 86 88 90 85 86 85 82 80 75 70 V (KT) LGEM 70 77 82 86 88 88 87 87 84 79 74 69 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 11 13 15 18 17 16 15 13 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -2 -5 -3 0 0 2 4 11 5 4 SHEAR DIR 92 90 78 65 77 49 60 59 80 95 107 121 132 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 158 156 155 152 150 148 146 146 143 140 137 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -52.1 -51.7 -52.3 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 69 66 68 67 64 63 64 66 66 65 62 61 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 23 24 24 26 24 28 29 28 28 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR 25 33 39 46 45 54 73 82 97 99 108 108 114 200 MB DIV 61 60 53 52 9 25 31 43 39 9 -1 -12 10 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 0 0 1 0 -2 -2 -5 -2 -2 1 LAND (KM) 852 892 918 981 1048 1205 1352 1534 1738 1913 2046 2209 2003 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.0 17.9 17.4 16.9 16.4 16.0 15.9 16.5 17.2 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 116.1 116.8 117.5 118.4 119.2 120.8 122.2 124.0 126.1 128.4 130.7 133.2 135.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 10 10 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 12 13 16 22 13 15 19 19 10 3 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 5. 10. 13. 12. 13. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 16. 18. 20. 15. 16. 15. 12. 10. 5. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.8 116.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 08/30/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.43 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.49 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.11 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 318.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.50 -2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.8% 31.6% 28.3% 20.3% 14.3% 19.7% 16.1% 0.0% Logistic: 18.8% 23.0% 15.9% 11.0% 11.8% 8.5% 7.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 5.3% 5.3% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 17.3% 20.0% 15.2% 10.7% 8.8% 9.6% 7.8% 0.2% DTOPS: 94.0% 94.0% 83.0% 67.0% 58.0% 62.0% 10.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 08/30/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX