* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 08/30/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 104 111 111 109 106 94 90 89 89 83 74 69 V (KT) LAND 95 104 111 111 109 106 94 90 89 89 83 74 69 V (KT) LGEM 95 105 111 112 110 103 95 89 85 81 74 66 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 12 16 14 16 20 18 16 12 16 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -4 -5 -4 -1 0 2 0 7 5 4 2 SHEAR DIR 83 73 79 87 87 63 56 58 91 108 119 125 144 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.4 27.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 156 154 153 150 149 147 145 144 139 137 134 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 66 68 65 64 61 63 61 64 64 63 60 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 23 25 24 23 28 27 29 30 31 30 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 32 42 52 55 52 70 88 102 124 118 131 116 137 200 MB DIV 53 69 58 27 6 13 25 62 46 34 14 -3 5 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 0 0 1 -3 -2 -4 -5 -3 -3 2 LAND (KM) 917 955 998 1066 1137 1305 1501 1687 1839 1982 2124 2099 1828 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.9 18.0 17.9 17.7 17.1 16.4 16.0 16.0 16.4 17.3 18.1 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.8 118.6 119.4 120.2 121.8 123.6 125.5 127.5 129.8 132.3 134.9 137.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 11 12 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 13 17 25 15 15 21 18 16 4 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -5. -11. -17. -21. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -6. -3. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 12. 11. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 4. 9. 7. 11. 15. 17. 16. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 16. 16. 14. 11. -1. -5. -6. -6. -12. -21. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 17.8 117.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 08/30/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.19 1.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 8.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.35 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 462.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.32 -1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.4% 26.3% 26.0% 18.7% 14.0% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 24.8% 13.2% 10.0% 7.9% 11.3% 2.9% 2.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 7.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 21.3% 13.7% 12.1% 8.9% 8.5% 6.4% 0.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 94.0% 85.0% 67.0% 58.0% 44.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 08/30/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX