* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 08/30/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 135 132 125 118 99 88 80 74 68 61 50 46 V (KT) LAND 130 135 132 125 118 99 88 80 74 68 61 50 46 V (KT) LGEM 130 135 133 126 119 105 95 87 79 71 64 58 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 22 22 20 18 22 20 17 13 16 10 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -6 -4 1 3 2 1 6 5 1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 76 89 78 79 77 73 58 97 102 127 138 197 251 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.1 27.0 26.6 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 151 150 149 147 144 143 136 136 130 126 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 67 63 64 65 66 67 67 65 59 54 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 26 27 28 26 29 29 28 27 27 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 44 52 53 58 65 85 99 108 92 108 93 89 76 200 MB DIV 69 9 4 12 37 33 38 46 9 -6 -3 1 -2 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 1 0 -3 -5 -5 -2 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1020 1090 1162 1241 1321 1499 1667 1802 1897 2049 2102 1812 1580 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.4 17.2 17.0 16.7 16.1 15.8 16.1 16.9 17.8 18.7 19.6 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.2 120.0 120.8 121.6 123.3 125.1 127.1 129.2 131.8 134.8 137.5 139.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 10 12 14 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 16 16 15 16 24 18 28 5 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -14. -24. -35. -44. -52. -58. -62. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -15. -18. -23. -24. -19. -11. -5. -2. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 10. 13. 12. 10. 6. 1. -3. -6. -7. -11. -13. -13. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. 0. 1. -1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 2. -5. -12. -31. -42. -50. -56. -62. -69. -80. -84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 17.6 118.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 08/30/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.03 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 605.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 08/30/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING