* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 08/31/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 125 119 114 108 96 86 83 82 77 69 65 57 V (KT) LAND 130 125 119 114 108 96 86 83 82 77 69 65 57 V (KT) LGEM 130 127 122 116 110 99 89 80 74 66 59 52 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 17 15 21 23 22 14 14 12 8 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 3 2 0 2 3 5 5 4 3 1 SHEAR DIR 83 82 69 71 71 55 76 92 98 130 147 213 273 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 152 150 150 148 146 144 139 136 132 127 127 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 67 64 64 64 66 66 65 67 62 57 53 52 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 27 24 25 21 850 MB ENV VOR 57 55 51 57 74 85 102 103 94 93 88 84 78 200 MB DIV 63 7 -4 25 33 45 40 47 29 -2 -4 -23 -7 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 1 0 -1 -5 -2 0 1 2 4 LAND (KM) 1090 1158 1229 1305 1382 1564 1699 1826 1984 2169 1886 1611 1382 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.3 17.1 16.9 16.6 16.2 16.4 16.8 17.5 18.4 19.4 20.1 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 119.2 120.0 120.8 121.6 122.3 124.2 126.0 128.2 130.8 133.6 136.8 139.4 141.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 12 13 15 14 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 18 15 14 18 16 22 9 0 1 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -24. -35. -45. -53. -59. -62. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -11. -15. -19. -23. -25. -18. -11. -5. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 7. 4. 0. 1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -22. -34. -44. -47. -48. -53. -61. -65. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 17.4 119.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 08/31/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 583.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 08/31/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX