* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 08/31/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 118 111 104 99 92 84 85 84 80 75 70 65 V (KT) LAND 125 118 111 104 99 92 84 85 84 80 75 70 65 V (KT) LGEM 125 120 115 109 103 95 87 81 74 68 61 56 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 18 18 21 20 17 11 10 5 9 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 2 1 0 2 0 7 6 5 4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 76 68 65 62 59 64 76 84 114 160 196 261 283 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 150 149 147 145 142 136 133 129 126 128 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 65 62 63 64 61 57 54 54 51 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 28 28 28 29 31 29 32 31 29 27 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 57 54 57 70 76 104 114 108 115 90 91 89 88 200 MB DIV 27 5 17 15 26 45 46 36 22 -18 -19 -16 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -5 -3 -2 -3 5 0 6 LAND (KM) 1164 1226 1290 1382 1476 1655 1783 1923 2119 2004 1748 1486 1217 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.3 16.1 16.5 17.3 18.2 19.1 19.7 20.3 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 119.9 120.6 121.3 122.3 123.2 125.2 127.3 129.9 132.9 135.7 138.1 140.6 143.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 14 14 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 15 14 15 20 15 19 1 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -22. -32. -42. -49. -55. -58. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -14. -18. -22. -22. -15. -8. -2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 4. 8. 8. 5. 3. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -21. -26. -33. -41. -40. -41. -45. -50. -55. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 17.1 119.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 08/31/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.01 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 579.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 08/31/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX