* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 08/31/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 104 93 86 80 74 70 68 70 68 65 62 61 V (KT) LAND 115 104 93 86 80 74 70 68 70 68 65 62 61 V (KT) LGEM 115 107 100 94 89 82 77 70 64 59 55 52 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 25 22 23 20 14 13 9 8 5 2 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 -1 0 1 4 7 5 4 0 4 4 SHEAR DIR 66 59 67 65 63 75 89 126 134 143 185 271 282 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 149 148 147 144 137 135 132 128 129 127 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -52.0 -51.4 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 64 65 65 64 59 54 49 49 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 27 29 29 30 28 28 29 28 27 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR 57 63 74 74 78 97 103 100 95 82 80 80 74 200 MB DIV 16 18 8 14 18 37 31 26 0 -8 -26 -11 14 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -3 1 -2 0 0 2 5 LAND (KM) 1224 1303 1382 1456 1532 1708 1826 1990 2144 1824 1539 1309 1115 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.6 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.3 17.0 17.9 18.7 19.3 19.6 20.1 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 120.4 121.2 122.0 122.9 123.8 126.0 128.4 131.2 134.4 137.4 140.1 142.3 144.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 11 13 15 15 14 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 13 15 16 24 6 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -26. -34. -41. -46. -49. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -15. -18. -22. -21. -15. -9. -4. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -22. -29. -35. -41. -45. -47. -45. -47. -50. -53. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.8 120.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 08/31/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 491.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.2% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 08/31/18 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX