* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 08/31/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 99 89 83 79 70 69 67 65 62 59 59 58 V (KT) LAND 110 99 89 83 79 70 69 67 65 62 59 59 58 V (KT) LGEM 110 103 97 92 87 79 74 68 61 56 52 50 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 25 23 21 17 19 15 13 9 13 7 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 4 1 5 10 5 1 2 4 0 SHEAR DIR 66 63 65 60 55 78 96 132 121 139 165 214 208 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.1 27.0 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 148 148 145 142 137 135 131 129 128 126 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 65 60 62 62 61 57 53 50 47 45 43 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 27 28 29 27 29 28 26 25 23 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 66 84 81 81 85 106 109 103 84 84 77 79 65 200 MB DIV 9 14 12 31 27 15 31 16 -2 6 -5 18 23 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 1 -2 3 2 4 4 LAND (KM) 1291 1371 1452 1528 1606 1776 1939 2131 1997 1698 1424 1215 1063 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.5 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.5 17.2 18.0 18.7 19.3 19.7 20.3 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 121.1 122.0 122.9 123.8 124.7 127.2 130.0 132.9 135.8 138.6 141.2 143.2 144.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 11 13 14 14 14 13 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 14 18 14 18 3 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -14. -23. -30. -37. -41. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -10. -15. -17. -21. -20. -14. -9. -4. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. -1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -21. -27. -31. -40. -41. -43. -45. -48. -51. -51. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 16.6 121.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 08/31/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 505.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 08/31/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX