* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/01/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 98 92 89 85 82 75 68 66 61 59 57 57 V (KT) LAND 105 98 92 89 85 82 75 68 66 61 59 57 57 V (KT) LGEM 105 100 95 91 87 81 75 67 60 55 52 50 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 26 21 17 17 16 17 18 13 9 6 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 6 3 4 4 3 3 1 2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 58 51 58 73 77 80 101 127 148 168 195 222 208 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 149 149 148 145 138 136 132 128 127 127 127 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 66 63 65 65 66 62 58 55 51 51 48 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 28 27 29 28 26 26 24 23 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 83 90 85 92 101 108 108 90 76 75 73 74 63 200 MB DIV 13 27 32 35 23 39 34 12 18 6 2 22 33 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 -1 -2 -6 0 1 1 1 3 0 3 LAND (KM) 1359 1425 1491 1574 1660 1834 2006 2156 1813 1549 1351 1166 987 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.3 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.9 17.8 18.6 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.7 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 121.8 122.6 123.3 124.4 125.5 128.4 131.3 134.3 137.5 140.0 141.9 143.7 145.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 11 13 14 14 15 14 11 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 14 16 17 24 7 2 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -12. -20. -27. -33. -38. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -13. -15. -17. -16. -13. -9. -5. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -16. -20. -23. -30. -37. -39. -44. -46. -48. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.4 121.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/01/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 427.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/01/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX