* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/01/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 86 80 74 72 70 66 62 63 61 61 61 62 V (KT) LAND 95 86 80 74 72 70 66 62 63 61 61 61 62 V (KT) LGEM 95 89 84 80 76 72 67 61 57 54 53 52 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 23 19 19 14 13 16 7 8 6 7 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 4 5 4 5 8 8 6 0 5 1 5 SHEAR DIR 49 58 60 78 85 98 133 140 156 187 216 229 207 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.5 27.1 27.0 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 148 146 141 137 136 130 128 127 127 127 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 -51.5 -52.0 -51.5 -52.1 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 62 61 54 53 50 48 45 43 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 29 27 28 29 29 26 26 24 24 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 88 87 93 105 116 118 113 80 74 67 69 68 64 200 MB DIV 22 37 39 18 30 36 10 3 -1 0 3 15 20 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -2 -6 -5 2 -1 0 5 1 4 3 LAND (KM) 1421 1500 1582 1677 1752 1924 2152 1933 1634 1382 1196 1015 839 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.5 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.5 124.5 125.8 127.1 130.0 133.2 136.4 139.2 141.6 143.4 145.2 147.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 13 13 15 16 15 13 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 17 15 12 18 3 8 0 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -14. -20. -25. -29. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -8. -4. -1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -15. -21. -23. -25. -29. -33. -32. -34. -34. -34. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 16.3 122.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/01/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.12 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 442.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/01/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX