* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN EP172018 09/01/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 49 57 67 80 87 86 90 85 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 49 57 67 80 87 86 90 85 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 40 45 51 59 64 66 67 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 16 11 10 9 12 17 15 19 13 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -1 0 1 1 6 2 8 6 7 9 9 SHEAR DIR 19 11 14 17 6 10 46 62 31 37 37 47 46 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 163 163 162 161 161 161 160 159 156 151 146 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 82 81 78 77 76 72 72 68 65 62 61 58 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 11 11 10 11 13 14 18 23 26 25 30 28 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -26 -31 -25 -25 -27 -19 11 28 41 75 82 85 200 MB DIV 93 61 60 71 84 100 79 43 45 23 4 14 -11 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -7 -4 -4 -2 -3 -1 -5 -12 -14 -15 -5 LAND (KM) 689 703 724 745 766 769 775 816 901 1006 1102 1231 1370 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.3 16.7 16.9 16.9 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.6 110.2 110.7 111.1 112.2 113.4 114.5 115.8 117.4 119.5 121.6 123.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 9 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 25 22 22 24 25 27 25 16 10 9 13 18 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 8. 15. 23. 28. 31. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 5. 11. 19. 25. 24. 29. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 19. 27. 38. 50. 57. 56. 60. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 109.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 SEVENTEEN 09/01/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.37 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.86 -4.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.87 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 22.7% 20.8% 14.3% 9.0% 19.3% 22.3% 28.1% Logistic: 0.4% 3.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 4.8% 12.7% 12.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% Consensus: 3.2% 9.8% 7.8% 5.1% 3.1% 8.0% 11.7% 14.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 11.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% 35.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 SEVENTEEN 09/01/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX