* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/01/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 85 82 83 81 79 71 65 61 58 57 58 58 V (KT) LAND 90 85 82 83 81 79 71 65 61 58 57 58 58 V (KT) LGEM 90 85 82 79 78 74 68 62 57 54 53 54 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 15 13 12 13 16 17 15 9 5 6 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 2 6 6 6 1 0 0 3 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 49 63 77 93 97 108 120 142 175 206 228 211 222 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 147 145 138 135 132 126 126 126 127 128 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 66 65 66 61 61 58 56 52 52 48 47 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 27 29 28 29 27 26 25 24 25 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 91 93 102 111 113 124 104 78 66 64 65 57 54 200 MB DIV 21 21 21 29 42 41 2 10 6 5 17 25 32 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -2 -6 -6 0 1 0 4 3 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 1483 1561 1641 1728 1811 1995 2166 1834 1528 1301 1140 958 775 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.7 18.6 19.4 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.3 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 123.2 124.2 125.2 126.6 128.0 131.1 134.2 137.3 140.2 142.4 144.0 145.8 147.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 14 14 16 15 15 12 9 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 17 10 18 9 3 2 0 0 0 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -11. -17. -21. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -7. -9. -11. -19. -25. -29. -32. -33. -32. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.2 123.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/01/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.15 0.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.25 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 404.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.39 -1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.82 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 10.7% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.3% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 71.0% 40.0% 16.0% 18.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/01/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX