* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/01/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 88 89 89 84 77 70 63 59 57 59 59 V (KT) LAND 90 89 88 89 89 84 77 70 63 59 57 59 59 V (KT) LGEM 90 88 87 86 85 80 73 66 61 56 55 57 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 7 8 8 9 11 15 11 8 7 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 4 7 11 2 0 0 3 -2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 58 89 107 99 79 109 119 166 205 219 220 206 218 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.9 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 145 141 136 135 128 127 127 127 126 126 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 59 56 55 50 52 47 46 44 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 26 28 28 28 26 25 23 23 22 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 89 103 117 114 121 121 96 78 58 62 53 64 55 200 MB DIV 16 19 15 26 35 5 -6 4 2 -3 -5 16 37 700-850 TADV -5 -1 -7 -9 -6 -1 0 0 0 1 3 3 4 LAND (KM) 1589 1689 1768 1842 1924 2146 1920 1601 1321 1088 882 732 618 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.4 16.5 17.0 17.4 18.2 19.1 20.0 20.6 21.1 21.5 21.8 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.8 127.1 128.5 130.0 133.2 136.5 139.5 142.2 144.5 146.6 148.2 149.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 15 15 16 15 14 12 10 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 12 25 18 4 6 0 0 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -12. -18. -22. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. -6. -13. -20. -27. -30. -33. -31. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.2 124.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/01/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.14 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.57 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.15 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 478.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.30 -1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 19.4% 12.9% 11.5% 8.8% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 8.3% 3.8% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 9.3% 5.6% 4.5% 3.2% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 58.0% 28.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/01/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX