* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN EP172018 09/01/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 44 54 58 66 65 61 58 53 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 44 54 58 66 65 61 58 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 32 35 37 40 42 40 37 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 17 16 13 13 22 22 26 21 16 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 1 2 6 0 3 5 4 4 5 0 SHEAR DIR 31 31 32 27 44 63 73 72 67 59 60 49 69 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 162 161 161 161 160 158 155 152 151 148 142 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 81 79 77 76 75 73 72 68 64 61 61 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 12 13 13 16 15 19 18 15 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -28 -34 -42 -42 -23 0 27 40 48 56 64 67 200 MB DIV 66 82 71 63 58 52 46 29 38 6 23 20 9 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -5 -3 -1 0 0 0 -1 -5 -6 -7 -4 LAND (KM) 785 805 824 852 839 840 896 996 1129 1237 1344 1489 1626 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.4 16.7 17.3 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.0 111.4 111.9 112.4 113.5 114.6 116.2 118.1 120.1 121.9 124.2 127.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 5 5 6 5 6 9 9 9 10 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 26 27 27 25 17 11 14 11 12 8 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 28. 31. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -11. -13. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 8. 7. 4. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 14. 24. 28. 36. 35. 31. 28. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.8 110.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 SEVENTEEN 09/01/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.25 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.22 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 -3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.95 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 20.4% 18.1% 12.1% 7.7% 16.5% 18.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 9.1% 3.1% 1.5% 0.6% 4.6% 7.6% 7.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 10.8% 7.2% 4.6% 2.8% 7.1% 8.8% 2.6% DTOPS: 6.0% 36.0% 19.0% 12.0% 3.0% 6.0% 20.0% 43.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 SEVENTEEN 09/01/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX