* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/02/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 84 85 83 77 72 64 59 54 50 50 50 V (KT) LAND 85 84 84 85 83 77 72 64 59 54 50 50 50 V (KT) LGEM 85 84 82 81 78 72 67 61 55 50 47 47 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 8 6 6 8 13 15 13 11 17 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 7 9 8 0 0 3 2 -1 2 4 SHEAR DIR 85 93 98 89 89 110 146 186 205 218 203 224 222 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.9 26.5 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 144 140 136 135 130 126 127 127 127 126 126 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 63 60 60 58 58 56 53 53 50 48 45 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 29 27 25 25 23 23 22 21 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 105 110 109 108 118 98 69 64 49 42 47 50 38 200 MB DIV 25 11 22 46 31 0 11 8 0 19 15 18 38 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -10 -9 -4 -4 3 2 2 2 4 6 13 LAND (KM) 1654 1733 1819 1914 2018 2101 1759 1476 1229 1020 814 687 588 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.8 19.7 20.4 20.8 21.3 21.9 22.3 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 125.5 127.0 128.5 130.0 131.6 134.8 138.0 140.7 143.1 145.2 147.4 148.9 150.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 15 15 16 16 15 12 11 10 9 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 8 24 16 7 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -19. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. -2. -8. -13. -21. -26. -31. -35. -35. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.5 125.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/02/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.16 1.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.68 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.11 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 468.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.31 -1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 21.3% 15.0% 13.1% 9.6% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 5.8% 3.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 9.0% 6.0% 4.8% 3.3% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 55.0% 32.0% 13.0% 11.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/02/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX