* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN EP172018 09/02/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 48 58 66 74 76 76 73 68 63 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 48 58 66 74 76 76 73 68 63 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 43 47 53 58 59 56 52 47 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 17 14 10 17 23 24 22 21 17 18 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 3 4 0 2 6 5 10 5 2 SHEAR DIR 15 13 25 41 57 72 75 67 67 58 57 48 64 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 161 160 160 158 156 154 151 148 143 133 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -53.1 -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 80 78 76 76 75 73 69 65 61 59 56 54 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 17 19 23 24 24 24 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -38 -49 -45 -39 -16 17 36 52 68 78 75 71 200 MB DIV 80 80 63 65 72 55 52 37 27 15 29 -9 11 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -4 -2 0 0 2 0 0 -5 -4 -11 -3 LAND (KM) 839 862 849 851 856 898 979 1098 1203 1328 1463 1597 1744 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.0 112.4 112.9 113.4 114.8 116.2 117.8 119.6 121.7 123.9 126.3 129.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 10 10 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 27 27 26 16 11 14 11 12 7 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 15.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -7. -11. -13. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 12. 14. 16. 15. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 23. 31. 39. 41. 41. 38. 33. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.1 111.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 SEVENTEEN 09/02/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.30 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.24 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -4.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.84 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 27.0% 22.9% 15.6% 10.6% 19.1% 19.9% 11.2% Logistic: 3.5% 23.9% 9.9% 5.9% 2.1% 10.0% 7.2% 4.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 13.5% 3.3% 0.7% 0.3% 2.8% 1.9% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 21.5% 12.0% 7.4% 4.3% 10.6% 9.6% 5.3% DTOPS: 6.0% 17.0% 10.0% 6.0% 2.0% 20.0% 27.0% 37.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 SEVENTEEN 09/02/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX