* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/02/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 92 90 89 81 72 63 57 55 51 49 47 V (KT) LAND 90 90 92 90 89 81 72 63 57 55 51 49 47 V (KT) LGEM 90 90 89 87 83 75 67 59 54 51 49 47 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 6 8 12 10 16 18 13 10 16 23 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 7 9 8 4 0 -2 3 1 3 5 6 SHEAR DIR 99 87 83 96 122 115 166 204 226 233 211 225 222 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.2 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 141 136 134 133 127 126 127 127 127 126 124 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.9 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -51.5 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 61 59 61 60 58 54 54 50 46 45 45 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 28 27 28 26 25 23 21 22 21 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 114 107 110 115 113 80 66 46 45 42 53 39 39 200 MB DIV 19 18 48 50 35 12 8 7 12 10 4 26 46 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -6 0 -1 -1 8 1 3 7 7 12 14 LAND (KM) 1707 1788 1877 1982 2095 1959 1643 1355 1079 882 755 649 575 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.4 20.4 21.0 21.2 21.5 21.9 22.6 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 126.7 128.2 129.6 131.3 132.9 136.1 139.1 141.9 144.6 146.6 148.0 149.5 151.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 16 16 15 14 13 11 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 17 21 6 3 6 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -8. -14. -19. -23. -27. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. -5. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 0. -1. -9. -18. -27. -33. -35. -39. -41. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.9 126.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/02/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.09 0.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.69 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 507.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.27 -1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 20.6% 15.1% 13.3% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 2.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 7.5% 5.5% 4.6% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 71.0% 26.0% 10.0% 8.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/02/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX