* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/02/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 52 62 68 75 78 78 77 74 67 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 52 62 68 75 78 78 77 74 67 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 50 53 60 65 67 64 61 58 53 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 15 7 10 20 20 21 19 19 14 14 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 3 7 5 7 5 6 12 7 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 5 19 38 56 68 67 56 55 45 51 44 33 55 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.4 27.9 26.9 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 161 162 160 158 156 153 149 144 134 125 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 76 73 72 72 70 67 62 59 55 58 55 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 16 22 23 27 27 27 27 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -50 -49 -37 -26 8 26 43 47 73 67 57 52 200 MB DIV 67 48 48 43 31 52 12 28 5 38 29 6 19 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -3 -8 -11 -12 -17 -4 LAND (KM) 814 802 794 795 802 870 982 1077 1198 1359 1499 1654 1836 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.6 18.2 18.9 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.4 112.9 113.5 114.1 115.6 117.0 118.6 120.6 122.9 125.3 128.0 130.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 6 6 7 7 7 9 10 12 13 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 27 24 20 12 11 13 19 7 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 9. 14. 17. 17. 17. 17. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 22. 28. 35. 38. 38. 37. 34. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.8 111.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/02/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.36 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.22 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.78 -3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 22.0% 21.4% 15.0% 9.5% 17.2% 18.0% 10.7% Logistic: 1.9% 14.7% 6.1% 3.3% 0.9% 4.1% 2.8% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 6.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 14.4% 9.6% 6.2% 3.5% 7.3% 7.1% 4.3% DTOPS: 11.0% 41.0% 30.0% 21.0% 10.0% 33.0% 41.0% 20.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/02/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX