* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/02/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 122 122 119 112 99 84 70 63 57 52 47 44 V (KT) LAND 115 122 122 119 112 99 84 70 63 57 52 47 44 V (KT) LGEM 115 120 118 110 102 88 77 69 64 61 58 54 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 5 8 6 6 12 13 12 10 22 24 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 6 7 7 4 -1 0 3 1 6 6 5 SHEAR DIR 29 59 122 145 134 158 200 217 243 221 226 218 228 SST (C) 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 135 133 133 130 127 128 129 129 128 126 122 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 58 56 55 55 54 52 51 48 45 42 42 42 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 28 30 28 27 26 24 24 23 24 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 106 108 111 111 97 65 62 45 42 53 49 38 38 200 MB DIV 40 50 43 27 2 10 12 12 12 15 14 51 36 700-850 TADV -9 -5 -1 -3 -3 -2 5 5 4 9 13 20 22 LAND (KM) 1788 1889 1999 2108 2108 1737 1414 1168 953 746 544 470 468 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.9 20.5 20.9 21.0 21.3 22.0 22.7 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 128.3 130.0 131.6 133.2 134.7 138.2 141.3 143.7 145.8 147.9 150.3 151.7 152.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 15 16 16 13 11 10 11 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 3 1 2 0 5 1 3 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -23. -32. -40. -46. -50. -53. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 10. 6. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 0. 0. -2. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 7. 4. -3. -16. -31. -45. -52. -58. -63. -68. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.4 128.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/02/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 788.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.0% 5.4% 11.2% 4.2% 2.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.0% 1.8% 3.7% 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/02/18 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 18 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX