* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/02/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 48 51 57 63 67 75 73 70 66 61 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 48 51 57 63 67 75 73 70 66 61 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 46 49 52 57 59 59 59 58 54 48 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 9 12 15 16 15 17 14 11 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 7 8 8 7 7 8 9 7 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 17 34 53 52 46 49 56 53 34 50 39 87 148 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.5 27.9 26.8 25.6 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 159 159 158 159 158 154 149 144 133 121 113 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -52.1 -51.6 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.7 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 74 71 70 67 65 61 58 54 53 53 52 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 19 20 23 27 28 30 28 26 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -40 -20 -14 -8 20 33 47 48 50 44 33 21 200 MB DIV 43 48 41 29 36 25 22 8 4 13 8 27 19 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 -5 -2 -12 -11 -13 -8 1 LAND (KM) 705 681 662 670 683 775 900 1022 1140 1261 1384 1567 1793 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.6 19.3 20.2 20.9 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 112.2 112.7 113.1 113.6 114.1 115.6 117.5 119.3 121.1 123.2 125.8 128.5 131.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 6 9 9 9 10 12 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 20 19 20 22 14 15 20 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 22. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 18. 16. 14. 13. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 23. 27. 35. 33. 30. 26. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.9 112.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/02/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.47 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.74 -3.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 25.0% 17.1% 14.9% 0.0% 17.7% 18.0% 10.9% Logistic: 0.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 9.0% 6.0% 5.1% 0.0% 6.2% 6.1% 3.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 0.0% 39.0% 22.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/02/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX