* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/02/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 120 120 116 110 95 80 67 60 55 50 44 38 V (KT) LAND 115 120 120 116 110 95 80 67 60 55 50 44 38 V (KT) LGEM 115 118 114 106 99 84 73 65 60 57 54 50 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 9 4 3 10 15 15 11 16 23 33 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 7 7 7 3 0 4 2 4 9 10 9 SHEAR DIR 35 129 144 153 160 184 203 235 255 238 223 213 209 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.2 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 134 133 132 127 128 128 128 129 127 125 124 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 56 54 55 53 50 52 48 45 43 41 43 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 29 28 27 25 24 23 23 23 22 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 105 111 107 103 80 64 58 53 53 60 48 49 46 200 MB DIV 55 56 20 -1 14 16 4 4 11 0 25 36 30 700-850 TADV -5 1 -3 -7 -8 3 2 5 4 9 20 23 21 LAND (KM) 1889 1999 2115 2092 1916 1539 1249 1025 824 651 505 461 490 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.4 20.7 21.0 21.2 21.7 22.5 23.5 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 130.0 131.6 133.2 134.9 136.5 140.1 142.9 145.1 147.1 149.0 151.1 152.6 153.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 17 15 12 10 9 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 3 1 2 6 2 3 2 1 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -9. -16. -24. -33. -40. -46. -51. -54. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 1. 3. 2. -1. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 5. 1. -5. -20. -35. -48. -55. -60. -65. -71. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.9 130.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/02/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 874.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 2.2% 6.4% 1.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.6% 0.7% 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/02/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 19 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX