* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/02/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 42 44 48 54 58 59 58 53 45 40 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 42 44 48 54 58 59 58 53 45 40 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 42 43 44 45 44 42 39 34 29 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 13 15 18 17 17 19 19 15 17 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 7 8 6 4 7 6 10 9 5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 35 62 65 67 59 59 59 54 62 66 53 46 63 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.0 27.1 25.9 25.1 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 160 161 160 158 157 152 145 136 123 116 116 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 73 71 68 67 63 59 56 50 50 47 46 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 18 20 20 21 24 24 23 22 20 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -30 -18 -11 -4 19 50 45 51 69 64 61 42 200 MB DIV 41 47 30 33 38 1 4 6 11 -2 12 16 -2 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -10 -8 -9 -15 -6 -3 LAND (KM) 741 727 719 756 798 903 989 1122 1302 1420 1559 1771 1947 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.7 17.8 17.9 17.9 18.1 18.4 18.9 19.7 20.6 21.3 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 113.1 113.6 114.1 114.8 115.5 116.9 118.6 120.7 123.3 125.8 128.2 131.0 134.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 7 10 11 13 12 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 30 26 22 21 20 14 13 23 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 20. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 0. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 19. 18. 13. 5. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.9 113.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/02/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.29 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.20 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.73 -2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 16.8% 10.8% 10.4% 0.0% 12.3% 13.4% 8.6% Logistic: 0.5% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 6.4% 3.9% 3.6% 0.0% 4.3% 4.5% 2.9% DTOPS: 4.0% 44.0% 19.0% 10.0% 5.0% 34.0% 18.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/02/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX