* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/03/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 109 103 101 88 76 68 63 60 52 46 41 V (KT) LAND 115 113 109 103 101 88 76 68 63 60 52 46 41 V (KT) LGEM 115 110 104 96 89 77 68 63 59 56 50 45 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 5 6 12 14 14 10 21 31 46 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 9 7 5 0 2 3 2 7 3 1 2 SHEAR DIR 116 142 144 150 147 198 212 253 237 237 217 221 214 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.4 25.9 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 133 132 130 128 128 128 128 127 122 121 122 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 54 53 51 50 51 51 48 46 42 45 45 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 27 25 27 25 23 23 22 24 21 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 103 99 87 79 67 62 54 56 57 59 36 23 17 200 MB DIV 55 25 9 19 44 13 11 7 10 17 29 34 36 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -6 -7 0 5 5 4 7 7 16 17 29 LAND (KM) 2010 2125 2075 1901 1727 1403 1168 944 746 641 673 691 712 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.1 21.3 22.3 24.1 25.6 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 131.8 133.4 135.0 136.7 138.3 141.4 143.7 145.9 147.9 149.4 150.4 151.7 153.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 15 12 11 10 9 9 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 2 6 0 5 1 3 1 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -25. -33. -41. -47. -51. -54. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 1. 0. -6. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -12. -14. -27. -39. -47. -52. -55. -63. -69. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.4 131.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/03/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 906.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/03/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX