* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/03/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 42 42 48 54 62 64 69 65 62 57 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 42 42 48 54 62 64 69 65 62 57 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 41 42 44 46 47 46 44 40 36 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 12 12 12 20 16 15 16 13 11 6 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 8 7 6 3 6 6 9 5 4 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 56 48 51 62 65 48 62 54 65 40 40 27 275 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.5 27.7 26.7 25.5 25.0 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 160 160 159 155 150 142 132 120 115 113 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 72 72 68 65 62 60 57 53 52 49 47 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 21 20 22 25 29 27 29 28 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -23 -17 -5 6 27 49 39 51 62 74 58 49 200 MB DIV 36 30 23 36 25 38 26 25 8 11 35 -3 -15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -6 -2 -11 -5 -9 -10 -8 2 LAND (KM) 746 756 771 805 844 940 1060 1197 1325 1471 1683 1885 2002 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.5 19.2 20.0 20.9 21.7 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.0 114.5 115.2 115.8 117.4 119.6 121.7 124.0 126.7 129.8 132.8 135.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 9 11 11 12 14 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 30 27 24 20 17 13 15 13 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -5. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 7. 12. 11. 15. 13. 12. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 2. 2. 8. 14. 22. 24. 29. 25. 22. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.0 113.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/03/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.47 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.15 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.73 -2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.86 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 17.9% 12.4% 11.7% 0.0% 13.6% 14.8% 9.3% Logistic: 0.3% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 6.6% 4.3% 4.0% 0.0% 4.7% 5.1% 3.2% DTOPS: 6.0% 57.0% 30.0% 19.0% 10.0% 22.0% 14.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/03/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX