* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/03/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 105 99 94 89 76 67 62 57 53 49 45 38 V (KT) LAND 110 105 99 94 89 76 67 62 57 53 49 45 38 V (KT) LGEM 110 104 97 90 84 73 66 62 59 54 49 44 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 7 10 15 14 13 21 23 33 41 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 5 2 2 -1 7 2 3 4 4 2 5 SHEAR DIR 142 156 133 137 172 210 227 237 227 226 215 220 219 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.0 25.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 133 130 127 128 129 129 128 127 123 122 124 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -51.5 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 50 49 49 51 51 48 46 44 42 40 42 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 25 26 26 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 101 84 75 60 57 58 60 56 63 45 36 14 20 200 MB DIV 32 18 22 29 20 11 15 11 4 27 33 28 13 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -5 -5 -1 1 2 5 5 14 18 29 28 LAND (KM) 2155 2035 1854 1685 1518 1237 1022 824 645 569 590 621 686 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.2 21.8 22.7 24.1 25.5 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 133.7 135.4 137.1 138.7 140.3 143.0 145.1 147.1 149.1 150.5 151.5 152.7 154.0 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 15 14 11 10 10 9 8 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 4 5 0 3 4 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -22. -29. -37. -42. -47. -49. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -3. -2. -2. -3. -8. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -1. -2. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -21. -34. -43. -48. -53. -57. -61. -65. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.8 133.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/03/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 923.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/03/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX