* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/03/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 41 43 48 51 54 57 56 51 46 42 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 41 43 48 51 54 57 56 51 46 42 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 41 42 43 43 42 39 35 31 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 13 12 14 18 19 17 14 14 10 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 6 3 7 8 4 0 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 45 54 60 61 52 57 47 59 60 57 47 56 26 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 28.8 28.2 27.2 26.1 25.3 25.1 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 160 161 159 157 153 147 137 126 117 115 113 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 71 70 67 63 61 59 55 53 50 49 46 44 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 19 19 22 22 22 21 21 18 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -17 -5 2 16 35 36 33 57 46 44 21 17 200 MB DIV 17 21 30 29 8 21 10 27 10 8 4 8 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 -1 -2 -4 -8 -4 -8 -14 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 772 790 812 852 898 1011 1113 1261 1389 1560 1774 1937 1939 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.7 18.1 18.7 19.6 20.3 20.9 21.7 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 113.9 114.5 115.0 115.8 116.5 118.4 120.3 122.6 125.3 128.0 130.8 133.6 136.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 30 25 21 17 15 11 20 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 5. 7. 7. 7. 3. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 11. 14. 17. 16. 11. 6. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.0 113.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/03/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.34 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.19 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.71 -2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.83 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 17.6% 11.2% 10.7% 0.0% 12.9% 14.1% 8.7% Logistic: 0.3% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 6.4% 3.9% 3.6% 0.0% 4.5% 4.9% 3.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 23.0% 10.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/03/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX