* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/03/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 94 90 85 82 75 70 67 62 59 56 50 43 V (KT) LAND 100 94 90 85 82 75 70 67 62 59 56 50 43 V (KT) LGEM 100 93 86 80 76 70 66 63 61 57 51 43 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 8 11 12 10 9 9 17 23 38 41 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 1 2 0 4 6 1 7 9 2 8 -4 SHEAR DIR 144 128 153 176 200 218 256 241 233 217 224 216 226 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.3 25.8 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 128 127 128 129 129 129 129 126 121 119 119 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 49 47 48 50 50 44 43 41 43 42 45 42 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 25 24 25 24 24 24 22 21 22 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 81 80 61 57 55 55 58 46 48 36 25 18 6 200 MB DIV 27 31 20 -1 -4 18 15 19 26 40 26 44 17 700-850 TADV -2 -4 0 0 1 4 3 5 7 20 19 27 25 LAND (KM) 2004 1828 1654 1497 1340 1079 884 706 552 503 573 659 760 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.5 20.9 21.4 22.6 24.4 26.1 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 135.7 137.4 139.0 140.5 142.0 144.5 146.4 148.2 149.9 151.2 152.0 153.0 154.2 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 14 13 10 9 8 8 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 0 2 4 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -16. -22. -29. -33. -37. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. -2. -7. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -6. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -15. -18. -25. -30. -33. -38. -41. -44. -50. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.1 135.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/03/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 847.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/03/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX