* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/03/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 60 64 67 72 73 74 72 70 67 60 58 V (KT) LAND 50 55 60 64 67 72 73 74 72 70 67 60 58 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 59 62 65 68 68 65 60 54 48 44 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 13 13 16 15 19 20 13 8 5 4 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 4 6 7 7 5 4 4 2 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 59 60 51 48 50 46 46 65 55 54 70 103 102 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.0 27.2 26.0 25.1 25.3 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 156 155 154 150 145 137 125 115 118 117 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 70 67 66 62 62 59 57 58 54 53 50 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 21 22 22 24 22 21 21 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -1 10 14 19 30 25 35 32 21 13 25 17 200 MB DIV 25 29 25 14 17 25 13 35 5 24 12 -1 1 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 0 -1 -1 -8 -4 -7 -4 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 842 871 904 964 1028 1116 1221 1368 1488 1642 1832 2007 1879 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.1 18.9 19.7 20.5 21.2 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.0 115.6 116.5 117.3 119.2 121.1 123.4 125.9 128.5 131.2 134.0 136.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 12 12 13 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 33 23 17 13 12 6 3 5 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 8. 7. 6. 6. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 17. 22. 23. 24. 22. 20. 17. 10. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.5 114.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/03/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.31 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.80 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.64 -3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.8% 27.6% 24.4% 16.7% 11.8% 20.0% 17.9% 7.8% Logistic: 7.0% 15.5% 6.3% 4.0% 0.6% 6.2% 3.3% 0.9% Bayesian: 1.1% 15.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 8.6% 19.5% 10.6% 7.0% 4.2% 8.9% 7.1% 2.9% DTOPS: 20.0% 83.0% 62.0% 39.0% 24.0% 15.0% 6.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/03/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX