* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/03/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 83 77 73 71 66 63 60 56 51 42 32 23 V (KT) LAND 90 83 77 73 71 66 63 60 56 51 42 32 23 V (KT) LGEM 90 82 76 72 69 65 63 61 58 52 44 36 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 13 13 12 12 10 16 26 39 50 58 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 1 0 1 5 4 8 8 5 0 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 155 163 188 212 227 238 265 239 235 221 223 225 229 SST (C) 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 128 129 130 130 130 129 129 125 122 121 119 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 49 49 51 50 47 43 41 40 42 41 41 38 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 23 23 23 24 23 23 22 21 20 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 77 63 53 53 58 61 60 60 42 35 20 9 -2 200 MB DIV 35 22 -9 -10 -1 5 16 19 30 17 14 -6 10 700-850 TADV -5 0 1 -1 -2 0 1 4 13 12 17 17 9 LAND (KM) 1802 1623 1445 1298 1152 912 726 574 459 457 528 661 765 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.6 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.3 20.9 21.6 23.0 24.8 26.6 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 137.6 139.3 141.0 142.4 143.8 146.1 147.9 149.5 151.0 152.2 153.2 154.1 155.2 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 15 13 12 9 8 8 8 9 10 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 3 5 6 6 4 1 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -21. -25. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -4. -6. -12. -19. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -17. -19. -24. -27. -30. -34. -39. -48. -58. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 19.4 137.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/03/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 751.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/03/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX