* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/03/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 70 74 75 75 74 71 68 62 58 52 V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 70 74 75 75 74 71 68 62 58 52 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 70 74 76 76 72 67 61 54 48 43 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 13 16 17 20 19 14 13 7 3 1 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 8 9 6 3 7 6 2 0 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 53 48 49 53 49 41 56 61 47 42 40 155 191 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.3 27.6 26.6 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 155 156 152 148 141 131 120 120 118 115 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 68 65 63 62 60 55 55 51 50 45 41 39 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 21 22 24 25 26 27 25 24 22 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR -5 5 14 17 30 42 45 58 45 51 49 48 13 200 MB DIV 24 27 9 36 32 3 26 3 3 -6 6 1 -12 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -5 -8 -6 -8 -4 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 868 919 976 1040 1092 1206 1367 1498 1632 1815 2029 1898 1630 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.7 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.3 19.1 20.0 20.8 21.7 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 114.9 115.7 116.5 117.5 118.4 120.6 123.0 125.4 127.9 130.7 133.8 136.7 139.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 15 15 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 24 16 13 12 11 0 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 8. 7. 4. 3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 15. 14. 11. 8. 2. -2. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.6 114.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/03/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.32 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.96 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.56 -2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.6% 27.9% 20.0% 17.5% 11.8% 16.8% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 5.9% 2.6% 1.7% 0.2% 1.9% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.4% 12.2% 7.6% 6.4% 4.0% 6.2% 5.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 50.0% 86.0% 74.0% 57.0% 42.0% 12.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/03/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX