* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072018 09/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 59 62 63 65 64 63 57 55 56 55 V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 59 62 42 31 28 27 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 58 62 65 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 13 11 17 17 13 16 17 20 25 27 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -1 -4 -6 -8 -5 -4 0 4 SHEAR DIR 272 301 318 293 299 340 333 318 288 290 265 261 287 SST (C) 29.9 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.2 27.5 26.5 25.7 25.0 24.3 23.4 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 170 173 171 167 165 155 129 117 108 102 98 93 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 158 154 149 145 133 109 98 90 85 82 80 76 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -54.4 -54.2 -55.0 -54.2 -53.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6 -0.5 0.3 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 10 6 10 4 8 2 6 1 6 700-500 MB RH 64 63 65 65 65 66 70 74 78 81 78 68 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 9 8 7 6 5 6 10 15 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -55 -58 -44 -51 -80 -14 -20 -36 -43 -30 -22 18 200 MB DIV 27 -10 -17 23 29 1 44 -8 39 26 23 28 35 700-850 TADV 0 4 0 6 15 2 6 4 2 9 14 7 23 LAND (KM) 95 191 177 154 56 -123 -321 -456 -536 -620 -714 -856 -999 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.5 28.2 29.1 29.9 31.5 32.9 33.9 34.6 35.3 36.1 37.4 39.2 LONG(DEG W) 83.4 84.7 86.0 87.1 88.3 90.2 91.8 93.0 93.9 94.5 95.0 94.9 94.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 11 8 6 5 4 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 27 22 22 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -9. -5. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 12. 13. 15. 14. 13. 7. 5. 6. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.7 83.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072018 GORDON 09/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.16 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.72 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.66 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 18.9% 14.6% 10.9% 8.7% 11.8% 11.2% 14.6% Logistic: 3.3% 20.6% 11.2% 6.4% 4.4% 7.3% 9.7% 9.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 13.8% 8.7% 5.8% 4.4% 6.5% 7.0% 8.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 14.0% 7.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072018 GORDON 09/04/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072018 GORDON 09/04/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 55 59 62 42 31 28 27 27 27 27 28 18HR AGO 50 49 51 55 58 38 27 24 23 23 23 23 24 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 53 33 22 19 18 18 18 18 19 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT